Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?
KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01 · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 261 days remaining
Price
Last
22¢
Bid
21¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$1,079.01
Open Interest
$53,041.64
Cross-venue · polymarket
Same outcome trades on Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · match confidence 0.86 · close-time delta 39h
Counterpart price
22¢
This price
22¢
Spread (this − cp)
0¢
Counterpart IY
499.1%
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 526.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 37.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.05 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 251% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
256 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 5:22:47 PM
About this market
If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXABRAHAMSA-27-JAN01 yes 100