Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,839% annualized yield on the Yes side despite $25.8M in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 9¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in what is historically a competitive district. The massive yield discrepancy between Yes (1,839%) and No (18%) indicates severe liquidity imbalance and potential arbitrage opportunity, though the 10 Cliff Risk Index and recent 10¢→9¢ downward drift warrant caution about underlying fundamentals. With 201 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread, this appears to be a stale market where the price may not reflect current political conditions in TX-05.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade