Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat?

This CA-03 Republican market shows extreme mispricing with a 2425% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a dramatically undervalued outcome given the district's competitive history. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $19,991 open interest indicates the market is essentially frozen, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for decision-making. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the high cliff risk index (13) warns that resolution uncertainty or late-breaking political developments could create significant volatility once trading resumes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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