Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The Yes position has collapsed 62% over seven days (from 50¢ to 19¢), suggesting recent shipping data showed normal transit activity above the 10-vessel threshold, yet the extreme 14,990% implied yield on Yes indicates severe tail-risk pricing despite the low probability.
Analysis
The Yes position has collapsed 62% over seven days (from 50¢ to 19¢), suggesting recent shipping data showed normal transit activity above the 10-vessel threshold, yet the extreme 14,990% implied yield on Yes indicates severe tail-risk pricing despite the low probability. With only 10 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, resolution hinges entirely on IMF PortWatch's next data release, creating binary event risk that explains both the 600% realized volatility and the 2¢ spread's relative tightness given $25.7M open interest. The 0.42 vol ratio and neutral regime suggest the market has largely priced in the geopolitical baseline, with the Yes contract now functioning as a pure catastrophic-closure hedge rather than a balanced probability assessment.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214 yes 100