Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2416% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 13.7% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of the 14-16% Democratic popular vote margin outcome at just 7 cents. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $753k open interest and a wide 3-cent spread indicates illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a niche prediction with minimal trading activity rather than a market efficiently pricing a genuinely unlikely outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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