Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side despite Google's historically strong AI position and only 10 days to resolution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side despite Google's historically strong AI position and only 10 days to resolution. The price has collapsed from 8¢ to 3¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 5,800%, suggesting either late-breaking negative information about Google's model rankings or panic selling, yet the $156k daily volume remains modest relative to $6.2M open interest. The 4¢ bid-ask spread and cliff risk index of 32 indicate significant uncertainty about the final Chatbot Arena rankings, making this either a deeply undervalued contrarian bet or a reflection of market consensus that Google will definitively not hold the #2 position by month-end.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x97d311e42a892602d20056e53075cbed12e19e5b9654637c3a5cd92ef46c44cf yes 100