Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Meta's AI ranking prospects have deteriorated sharply, with the price collapsing 71% over seven days from 47¢ to 16¢, suggesting market participants have grown significantly more skeptical of Meta securing the #3 position by month-end. The extreme implied yield of 13,974% on the "Yes" side combined with a 4¢ spread and modest $518K daily volume indicates this is a highly speculative tail bet with thin liquidity, where the market may be pricing in near-zero probability despite the technical resolution criteria being objective and verifiable. With only 14 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,899%, this market is experiencing high uncertainty, though the neutral regime and 3.0 info arrivals per hour suggest new AI model releases or leaderboard updates could still drive material repricing before resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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