Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index dip to 30 by April 30?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 4¢, implying Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility must touch 30 or below by April 30, 2026—a level that would represent a dramatic compression from current elevated levels. The astronomical 59,539% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the massive mispricing relative to the near-zero liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and thin 2¢ spread, suggesting this is likely a stale or illiquid position rather than a genuine market consensus. With only 15 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 24, the market faces significant tail risk, though the neutral regime and modest info arrival rate (1.6/h) suggest no imminent catalysts are expected to drive such an extreme volatility compression.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or lower than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix

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