Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing MA-04 as heavily favored at 94¢, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, but the market shows critical liquidity concerns with zero 24-hour volume and only $30,686 in open interest despite 201 days to expiration. The extreme 2,849.9% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty—the 1¢ spread masks a market where contrarian positions would face severe slippage. With a Cliff Risk Index of 16 and the recent 1¢ price decline from 95¢, this appears to be a thinly-traded contract where the high Democratic probability reflects structural district fundamentals rather than active price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade