Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating a nonsensical 15,796% implied yield on the Yes side, indicating severe illiquidity with only $6.24 in 24-hour volume against $17.6K open interest. The sharp 40% price decline over seven days (5¢ to 3¢) combined with a high cliff risk index of 32 suggests recent negative sentiment, though the neutral regime score and thin 1¢ spread indicate minimal conviction among traders. With 75 days to expiry and a geopolitically implausible scenario, this appears to be a low-liquidity novelty market where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of actually executing trades rather than genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran. Former members, members-elect who have not yet been sworn in, and individuals who have resigned, been expelled, or otherwise ceased serving prior to entry will not qualify for a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade