Who will enter Iran by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$523
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will enter Iran by June 30
Who will enter Iran by June 30?: Any U.S. House member
0x584c97…06be
Analysis
This market asks whether anyone will physically enter Iran by June 30, 2026—a timeframe of roughly 8 weeks from today. The 7% probability reflects skepticism that major political or security developments would trigger cross-border entry by that date. The current level balances two competing dynamics: falling regimes or negotiated political settlements could enable such entry, while Iran's closed borders and lack of imminent regime collapse make it unlikely in the near term. The June 2026 FOMC meeting and ongoing nuclear negotiation discussions represent potential catalysts, though neither directly guarantees cross-border movement. A collapse of Iranian state control, successful regime change, or dramatic diplomatic breakthrough would substantially increase this probability, whereas continued regional stability would keep it low.
- ›Iranian regime stability and state control of borders remain intact as of May 2026, with no active armed rebellion or imminent collapse scenarios
- ›Reza Pahlavi (primary contract focus) lacks military force or external military backing to enter Iran unilaterally within two months
- ›Nuclear deal negotiations cited in related contracts show diplomatic engagement but no timeline suggesting regime change or border opening by June 30
- ›Related contract at 7% (regime fall by June 30) suggests underlying market assigns very low probability to any political upheaval this narrow timeframe
- ›Volume concentration in longer-dated contracts (December Pahlavi contract at 11¢) indicates traders assign higher probability to entry after June 30
Recently closed in iran
- Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?last 5% · 0d
- Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Iran coup attempt by June 30last 3% · 0d
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...last 8% · 0d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
Iran Uranium Enrichment Deal Odds Surge 20 Points
The probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by June 30 has jumped from 40¢ to 60¢, the largest single-day move in this contract. Trading volume is very high, suggesting a potential leak, official statement, or significant progress in talks.
US-Iran Diplomatic Hopes Collapse for Mid-June
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15 has collapsed by 39 points to just 3¢, and the June 16 contract is down 47 points to 6¢. This is the clearest signal that the market sees immediate, high-level talks as very unlikely, even as a broader peace deal is considered a certainty.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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