Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 25 Gwei before 2027?

This market is pricing in only a 10% probability of Ethereum gas fees averaging 25 Gwei before year-end 2026, despite offering an extreme 1,269% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward asymmetry that suggests either severe underpricing or significant tail-risk concerns about network conditions. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $1.4M open interest and a high cliff risk index of 9 indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the recent price decline from 11¢ to 10¢ over seven days may reflect growing skepticism about achieving such elevated gas prices given Ethereum's current scaling solutions. With 259 days to resolution and a 2¢ spread, this appears to be a niche market where the extreme yield compensates for both low probability and execution risk rather than genuine market inefficiency.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Indicators

Regime

Trade