What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?
Leader sits at 47% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10 Gwei
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
5 Gwei
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei
0xe32a73…6063
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 40 Gwei
0xb5d84b…d386
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei
0xa6a9da…d16e
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei
0x9ea003…d5f2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei
0x9cd09f…d76a
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei
0x85d9ea…cacc
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum's average monthly gas prices will reach 5 Gwei at some point before 2027—currently priced at 55% likelihood. Gas prices on Ethereum depend primarily on network congestion and demand for block space. They fluctuate based on transaction volume, which is driven by DeFi activity, NFT trading, and broader crypto market participation. The current 55% probability reflects moderate confidence this threshold will be breached, though significant uncertainty remains. Key drivers include whether Ethereum adoption accelerates, whether Layer 2 solutions reduce pressure on mainnet capacity, and macro market conditions affecting on-chain activity. The absence of a single resolution date means gas prices must hit this level at any point during the remaining months of 2026 for the contract to settle affirmatively.
- ›Current Ethereum base fees typically range 20-100+ Gwei during peak periods; reaching 5 Gwei would require sustained low network usage or represents historical levels from bear markets
- ›Layer 2 adoption (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) directly reduces mainnet transaction demand and gas competition, lowering prices independently of broader market conditions
- ›Macro crypto cycles and retail participation spikes drive volatile on-chain activity; bull markets historically produce elevated gas fees, while bear markets see reduced competition for block space
- ›Ethereum protocol upgrades or fee-burning mechanism changes could alter gas dynamics, though no major scheduled updates target gas reduction before year-end 2026
- ›The 47% runner-up contract suggests meaningful disagreement among traders on whether sustained sub-5-Gwei levels are achievable under realistic network demand scenarios
What moved the line
- Jun 1210 Gwei↑24pp10→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 125 Gwei↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1310 Gwei↑7pp34→41¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1810 Gwei↑7pp37→44¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 135 Gwei↑6pp18→24¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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