Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9f92c824e88085fdcc9de0d37e2b5c76075c0b292b4d8640054038a4808c2c83 yes 100