Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract is severely mispriced at 13¢, offering an extraordinary 1217% annualized yield despite Kansas's 04th district being traditionally Republican territory. With zero 24-hour volume but $23.1M in open interest, this appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity rather than genuine probability—the 2¢ spread and 201-day timeframe suggest few traders are actively testing this price. The 7/10 cliff risk score indicates significant event concentration risk, likely tied to candidate announcements or primary outcomes that could dramatically shift the district's competitiveness.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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