Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-01 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Democratic victory in NJ-01, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $26.4M open interest, suggesting this consensus view may be stale or reflect limited recent trading activity. The massive 2092% implied yield on the "No" outcome is a classic indicator of illiquidity at the extremes—the market is essentially saying a Republican win would be a shock, but there's minimal capital backing that position. With 201 days to expiration and a tight 2¢ spread, this appears to be a one-sided market where the Democratic lean is well-established but potentially untested by fresh price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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