Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% in 2026?

The market is pricing Trump's approval hitting 44% in 2026 at just 14%, yet the Yes side offers an extreme 869% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the ~27-month timeframe and historical approval volatility. Volume is modest at $57k daily against $3.9M open interest, and the recent 3-point price climb from 11¢ to 14¢ indicates growing conviction, though the tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest equilibrium pricing despite the yield anomaly. The 6 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution around resolution methodology—specifically the Silver Bulletin data source and the "finali" cutoff note—which could create disputes if approval ratings fluctuate near the threshold late in 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

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