Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (86%) that Republicans retain TX-04, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $19.6k open interest suggest thin liquidity and limited recent conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—29.6% for Yes versus 1117.4% for No—indicate a severe imbalance where betting against the Republican outcome offers outsized returns, a classic sign of illiquidity rather than genuine uncertainty. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a low-activity market where the price may not reflect true competitive dynamics in what is historically a safe Republican district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade