Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?

The market is pricing only a 21% probability of crude oil reaching $130 by end-June 2026, yet the asymmetric payoff structure generates an extraordinary 1,857.5% annualized yield for YES positions versus just 131.3% for NO, suggesting significant tail-risk mispricing or extreme conviction among NO holders. The sharp 25% price decline over seven days (28¢ to 21¢) combined with elevated realized volatility of 940% and a vol ratio of 2.17 indicates recent bearish momentum and heightened uncertainty, though the modest $11.3M daily volume and tight 2¢ spread suggest limited liquidity to absorb large directional bets. With 74 days to expiry and a neutral market regime, the cliff risk index of 4 warrants caution around geopolitical or supply-shock catalysts that could rapidly reprrice this tail event.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade