Will the Democratic Party win the PA-16 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1333.9% implied yield on the Yes side versus 24.8% on the No side, suggesting severe mispricing or very low conviction in Democratic prospects for this traditionally Republican district. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $17,232 open interest indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 12¢ price implies Democrats have only a 12% chance despite over 200 days until resolution. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 and the massive yield differential warrant caution, as this could reflect either genuine Republican dominance in PA-16 or a liquidity trap where the thin market has drifted far from fundamental value.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade