Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 958% implied yield for "No" positions versus 34.8% for "Yes," indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite the 84¢ Republican price. The $0 24-hour volume and modest $13,062 open interest suggest this is a thin, inactive market where the high yield reflects difficulty exiting contrarian positions rather than genuine probability. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the 3¢ spread is reasonable, but traders should be cautious about the cliff risk index of 5—the extreme yield skew suggests potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges about TX-17's competitive dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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