Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Ivory Coast is priced at a 10% chance to win Group E, but the extreme 4,629% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
Ivory Coast is priced at a 10% chance to win Group E, but the extreme 4,629% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or speculative positioning rather than genuine probability assessment. The market shows modest liquidity ($18.39 daily volume, $16.5k open interest) with a notable 70% price surge over seven days (7¢ to 10¢), suggesting recent momentum buying despite the high cliff risk index of 9 indicating potential volatility near resolution. With 71 days to the tournament and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, retail-driven market where the asymmetric payoff structure is attracting disproportionate attention relative to Ivory Coast's actual competitive standing in Group E.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xa681d4cd61508a023cd9f194a0435421ad25db02d0db8a4aeb56ea97b1854716 yes 100