US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

The market has surged 56% over seven days to 67¢, reflecting recent diplomatic momentum, though the extreme 503% realized volatility and 2.88 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty remains about whether negotiations will conclude by the June 30 deadline. The asymmetric implied yields (243% for Yes vs. 1003% for No) indicate traders view a deal as more likely but assign substantial tail risk to failure, with the 1.9 info arrivals per hour suggesting active news flow is driving price discovery. With 74 days to expiry and $33M open interest, liquidity is adequate, but the 2 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on late-stage binary resolution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Indicators

Regime

Trade