Will the Democratic Party win the VA-09 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Democratic win probability of just 7¢ despite VA-09 being a competitive district that Democrats have contested vigorously in recent cycles, suggesting the low price may reflect illiquidity rather than fundamentals. The 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and paired with zero 24-hour volume and $38,988 open interest, indicating the market is essentially frozen with no price discovery mechanism. With 201 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 13, this contract carries significant tail risk, making the extreme odds potentially exploitable for informed traders willing to accept the liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade