Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

The Republican contract at 64¢ reflects a modest GOP lean in TX-23, though the asymmetric implied yields—102.3% for Yes versus 323.4% for No—suggest the No side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns, indicating potential underpricing of Democratic chances. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $18,056 open interest and 201 days to expiration, liquidity is notably thin, making the 4¢ spread potentially deceptive given the low trading activity and 111% realized volatility. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action mask the market's underlying uncertainty, though the 0.5 info arrivals per hour suggest limited new data flow until closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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