Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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10¢
Bid/Ask 1/18¢·Spread 17¢·Vol $11.6·OI $518.447·Closes Apr 30, 2026·8d remaining
0xaa4bb07aac3e5666d51aa4d946caac08690cd68a5254292667e48a92a1077a32
7-day price194 snapshots · 1 regime
22¢10¢ current
Apr 91¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 40301.8%
IY (No) 497.6%
Adj IY 20151%
CRI 9
Overround 0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)40301.8%
IY (No)497.6%
Adj IY20151%
CRI9
Overround0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
17¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:26:52 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xaa4bb07aac3e5666d51aa4d946caac08690cd68a5254292667e48a92a1077a32 yes 100

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