Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely low 4% probability of Qassem's removal despite extraordinary volatility (2,622% realized) and an absurd 67,307% implied yield on "Yes" positions, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing at the extreme tail. The price has collapsed from 11¢ to 4¢ over seven days with just 13 days to expiry, indicating recent negative information flow (1.1 info arrivals per hour) that has shifted market sentiment decisively toward continuity. The near-zero spread and modest $23k open interest mask the high cliff risk (24) and vol ratio (1.44), warning that any unexpected geopolitical shock could trigger sharp repricing in this thin market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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