Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$668
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?: June 30, 2026
0xb14c07…0247
Analysis
This contract reflects a 17% probability that Naim Qassem will be replaced as Hezbollah's secretary-general by a specified date. The current low probability suggests markets view his position as relatively stable despite regional tensions. Key factors influencing the probability include the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict dynamics, Hezbollah's organizational stability following prior leadership losses, potential diplomatic developments, and any major escalation or de-escalation in cross-border activities. The main uncertainty driver would be significant military events or negotiated settlements that could destabilize or reshape Hezbollah's leadership structure. Without a clearly scheduled resolution event, the market is pricing in baseline political risk in a volatile region, though most consensus assumes continuity in the leadership role.
- ›Hezbollah's historical leadership succession patterns and organizational resilience following previous leader assassinations
- ›Current Israeli-Hezbollah military escalation levels and trajectory of cross-border incidents
- ›Status of regional diplomatic negotiations or ceasefire discussions that could alter Hezbollah's strategic position
- ›International sanctions or military pressure targeting Hezbollah's operational capacity
- ›Health or security status of current leadership and internal factional dynamics within the organization
What moved the line
- Jun 15June 30, 2026↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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