Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

The Yes position at 5¢ implies an extreme 3,456% annualized yield, but this reflects severe illiquidity with only $1,530 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume rather than genuine mispricing—the 7¢ spread is massive relative to the price. The market has collapsed from 9¢ to 5¢ over seven days with realized volatility exceeding 1,500%, suggesting either thin order books or a fundamental reassessment that sub-85 million House votes is implausibly unlikely (2022 saw 115 million votes cast). With 201 days to expiry and minimal information arrival (0.7/hour), this appears to be a dead market where the Yes contract is essentially illiquid and should be treated with extreme caution.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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