Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between -0.3% and -0.1%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $61.897k open interest, suggesting trapped positions and a wide 18¢ spread that likely reflects pricing uncertainty rather than active discovery. The astronomical implied yields (1542% for Yes, 809% for No) and 1798% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative niche bet with minimal real-money backing, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With only 33 days to expiry and resolution tied to Japan's May 19 GDP release, any new economic data could trigger sharp repricing, but the lack of trading activity suggests most participants are waiting for clarity rather than actively positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

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