Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

The 7¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of a first-round outright winner in Colombia's 2026 presidential election, with the "Yes" side offering an astronomical 11,032.9% implied yield—a classic sign of deep mispricing or structural market inefficiency. The 3¢ spread and modest $237k daily volume suggest thin liquidity despite $15.9M open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 44 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 13, the market appears to be pricing in strong historical precedent for Colombian runoffs, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine consensus or simply illiquidity on the low-probability tail.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Indicators

Regime

Trade