Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will anyone win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the first round?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 31, 2027. The 10-cent price reflects an extremely low probability of a first-round Colombian presidential winner, though the 1,693% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial mispricing potential if the market is underestimating runoff avoidance odds.
Analysis
The 10-cent price reflects an extremely low probability of a first-round Colombian presidential winner, though the 1,693% implied yield on the Yes side suggests substantial mispricing potential if the market is underestimating runoff avoidance odds. With only $1,318 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is critically thin, making the wide 5-cent spread largely theoretical and limiting practical tradability. The 410-day timeframe to the May 2027 close provides ample time for information arrival, though the neutral regime score and moderate cliff risk index (19) suggest relatively stable conditions absent major political shocks in Colombia.
Also on polymarket at 6¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOLOMBIAPRES1R-26MAY31 yes 100