Will there be between 120m and 125m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

The 13¢ price implies only a 13% probability of 120-125m votes, suggesting market participants expect turnout either significantly higher or lower than this narrow band—notably, 2022 House midterms saw 115m votes cast, making the upper bound only 9% above that baseline. The extreme 1217% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with thin 24-hour volume of just $39 and a 6¢ spread indicates low liquidity and potential mispricing, though the neutral regime score and modest cliff risk (7/10) suggest the market isn't pricing in unusual tail events. With 201 days to expiry, there's ample time for price discovery, but the sharp 5¢ drop over seven days warrants monitoring for directional conviction among informed traders.

Resolution rules

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

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