Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

The market is pricing in only a 5% chance of a rate cut before Warsh's confirmation, yet the asymmetric payoff structure generates an extreme 3,507% implied yield on the "Yes" side—a classic indicator of deep illiquidity with just $25 in daily volume against $19.6k open interest. The recent price decline from 6¢ to 5¢ over seven days, combined with a moderate 19 Cliff Risk Index and 198 days to expiry, suggests modest conviction in the "No" outcome, though the thin spread and low volume make this market vulnerable to sharp repricing on any Fed policy signal or confirmation timeline update.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade