Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 19¢ reflects an extremely bearish outlook for MD-01, a historically Republican district, with an extraordinary 778% implied yield on the Yes side that signals either deep value or severe illiquidity concerns. The 24-hour volume of just $284.22 against $17.3M open interest suggests thin trading and potential difficulty executing larger positions, while the tight 1¢ spread indicates some market maker presence despite the low activity. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet rather than a liquid, efficiently-priced contract, making the outsized yield less reliable as a true opportunity metric.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade