What is the current probability for "Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2741.4% and 7.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $0·OI $24,276.035·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0xaca5aedf274be4876eed3441d1cd4c9f5f3908ee2d5dff4c838ba89cd69365d8

7-day price158 snapshots · 3 regime

6¢5¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 18

Resolution rules

Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment. This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2741.4%

IY (No) 7.6%

Adj IY 1371%

CRI 19

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2741.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1371%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:45:23 AM

Observability lowEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xaca5aedf274be4876eed3441d1cd4c9f5f3908ee2d5dff4c838ba89cd69365d8 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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