Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 26,830% implied yield on the Yes side despite a tight 3¢ spread, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect true probability of 30-40 daily transits through Hormuz on April 30. The extraordinarily high realized volatility (1,168%) and cliff risk index (10) indicate sharp historical price swings, yet the market has remained flat at 9¢ over seven days with minimal volume ($9.07 in 24h), raising questions about whether this reflects genuine uncertainty or illiquidity-driven mispricing with only 14 days to resolution. The neutral regime and moderate info arrival rate (0.8/h) suggest no major geopolitical catalysts are currently pricing in, though any disruption to Middle Eastern shipping could dramatically shift this binary outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Indicators

Regime

Trade