Will the Democratic Party win the PA-11 House seat?

This PA-11 market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,472% implied yield for Democrats despite only 11¢ pricing and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the $14.4M open interest may be concentrated among a few positions or stale. The 580% realized volatility and 8/10 cliff risk index indicate this is a highly unstable market, likely reflecting Pennsylvania's competitive political landscape where district-level shifts can be dramatic, yet the near-zero trading activity raises questions about whether these prices reflect genuine consensus or illiquidity-driven mispricing with over 200 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade