Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 644.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 31.1% on the No side, suggesting significant underpricing of peace referendum odds despite the 18¢ price reflecting only an 18% probability. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $10,203 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates low liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions, while the recent 3¢ price appreciation over seven days (15¢ to 18¢) may reflect shifting geopolitical sentiment. With 258 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract faces meaningful tail risk around resolution events, making the extreme yield differential potentially exploitable for sophisticated traders comfortable with binary geopolitical exposure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade