What is the current probability for "Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 87¢ (87% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8.8% and 394.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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87¢

Bid/Ask 80/94¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $0·OI $295.399·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0xaf35affe20a84d95d4bb87bca25dc118cecf8b4abd7917e89dd052cf4bc9eed9

7-day price181 snapshots · 4 regime

88¢87¢ current

Apr 1450¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8.8%

IY (No) 394.5%

Adj IY 395%

CRI 7

RV 612%

VR 20.59

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	394.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	395%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	612%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	20.59	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

14¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:19:48 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xaf35affe20a84d95d4bb87bca25dc118cecf8b4abd7917e89dd052cf4bc9eed9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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