Will the Republican Party win the NV-01 House seat?

The Republican contract at 15¢ shows extreme mispricing with a 1,029% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity ($0 in 24h volume despite $8.7M open interest) or a significant structural inefficiency in this thin market. The 7¢ bid-ask spread represents 47% of the contract price, and the 1,206% realized volatility indicates wild price swings that don't reflect genuine information arrival (only 1.0 info events per hour). With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this market likely lacks sufficient participation to price NV-01 accurately, making the extreme yield more a liquidity premium than a genuine probability signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade