Will President Trump sign 3 pieces of legislation into law in April?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite $641k open interest, a 36¢ bid-ask spread, and an implausible 7175% annualized yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 25¢ price reflects stale quotes rather than genuine market consensus. The realized volatility of 3155% and 4.00 vol ratio indicate severe mispricing or data anomalies, while the 14-day expiry window and neutral regime score (0.5) provide insufficient time for mean reversion if this is indeed a liquidity desert. Traders should treat this market with extreme caution; the astronomical yields and zero volume suggest either a broken market or a trap for uninformed participants.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade