Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Mike Mazzei is priced at a modest 35% probability with extremely thin liquidity ($55 in 24h volume) relative to open interest ($11.9k), creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 1131% on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine conviction, while realized volatility of 1566% indicates this market has experienced severe price swings despite minimal trading activity. With 60 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where price discovery is limited and information arrival (3.7 events/hour) may be driving outsized moves rather than fundamental shifts in Mazzei's primary prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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