Will Mike Mazzei be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will Mike Mazzei be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oklahoma?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing Mazzei at a modest 34% chance despite an extraordinarily high 353% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile or extreme uncertainty about his nomination prospects.
Analysis
The market is pricing Mazzei at a modest 34% chance despite an extraordinarily high 353% implied yield on Yes contracts, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile or extreme uncertainty about his nomination prospects. With only $9,600 in open interest and $1,487 in daily volume, liquidity is thin, making the high yield potentially illusory given execution risk. The 969% realized volatility and sharp 5.79 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced wild swings, and with 201 days until the November 2026 close, substantial information arrival (1.0/hour) could dramatically shift sentiment around the Oklahoma Republican primary race.
Also on polymarket at 23¢(Δ +10¢)
Resolution rules
If Mike Mazzei wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oklahoma Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXGOVOKNOMR-26-MMAZ yes 100