Will Drake release an album in 2026?

The market is pricing Drake's 2026 album release at an extremely high 97% probability with a notable 6-cent cross-venue gap versus Kalshi (91¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or differing trader conviction between platforms. The zero 24-hour volume combined with thin $2,847.59 open interest indicates low liquidity despite the high price, creating execution risk for larger positions. The extreme 4,621% implied yield on "No" reflects the lopsided probability structure, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index and 255 days to expiration provide meaningful time for resolution uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including recordings of live events) by the resolution date. Album releases including non-original tracks such as live-versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums, or similar non original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

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