Iran leadership change by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Iran leadership change by April 30?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced sharp downward price movement, declining 36% over seven days from 11¢ to 7¢, suggesting reduced conviction in near-term Iranian leadership change despite the extremely high 35,362.7% implied yield on "Yes" positions.
Analysis
The market has experienced sharp downward price movement, declining 36% over seven days from 11¢ to 7¢, suggesting reduced conviction in near-term Iranian leadership change despite the extremely high 35,362.7% implied yield on "Yes" positions. With only 14 days to resolution and a tight 1¢ spread, the 7% probability appears to reflect genuine skepticism about regime change occurring by April 30, 2026, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 indicates meaningful tail risk remains. The $149.7M open interest against $21K daily volume suggests illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges for larger traders seeking to exit.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793 yes 100