Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than or equal to 0.0%?

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position priced at just 10¢ despite a massive 24,047% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or liquidity crisis rather than genuine recession probability. The price has collapsed 75% over seven days (from 39¢ to 10¢) while realized volatility sits at 1,360%, indicating either panic selling or a major information arrival that shifted sentiment sharply toward German economic resilience. With only $188.757 in 24-hour volume against $508.296 open interest and resolution occurring on the exact market close date (April 30, 2026), this appears to be a thin, illiquid market where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of exiting positions rather than true recession risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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