Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 40 Gwei before 2027?

This market is pricing in only a 6% chance of Ethereum's average monthly gas price reaching 40 Gwei before year-end 2026, offering an extreme 2203% implied yield for "Yes" positions despite $400k in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The stagnant price at 6¢ over seven days combined with a 1778% realized volatility and 16 cliff risk index suggests the market may be illiquid and prone to sharp repricing if on-chain activity or network upgrades materially shift gas dynamics. With 260 days to resolution and current Ethereum gas typically ranging 20-100 Gwei depending on network congestion, the 40 Gwei threshold appears moderately achievable but the market's extreme yield and lack of trading activity indicate either deep skepticism or potential mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab. This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold. A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Indicators

Regime

Trade