Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10,614% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 20¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026.
Analysis
This market displays extreme mispricing with a 10,614% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 20¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly 12 SpaceX launches in April 2026. The wide 13¢ spread and modest $107.88 daily volume indicate thin liquidity, which likely contributes to the pricing inefficiency and creates execution risk for larger positions. With 14 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, the market faces meaningful binary resolution risk, though the 468% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price appreciation (16¢ to 20¢) suggest active repricing as April approaches.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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Trade
sf trade 0xb938a51d25f8e5e10e49bb6fbb67dc4e08e67bf18d83d3dc86857a9090337cd1 yes 100