Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?

The Republican contract at 45¢ reflects a competitive race in TX-15, though the extreme 521% realized volatility and 222% implied yield on the Yes side suggest significant uncertainty or sparse trading activity—confirmed by zero 24-hour volume despite $17,275 open interest. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the 3.75 volume ratio indicates potential illiquidity concerns that may be inflating the yield figures. With 201 days until resolution and a neutral regime, this market appears thinly traded and may not reflect genuine consensus pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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